Resilience assessment for interdependent urban infrastructure systems using dynamic network flow models
File(s)InfrastructureResilience_20190102.pdf (1.43 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Goldbeck, Nils
Angeloudis, Panagiotis
Ochieng, Washington
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Critical infrastructure systems are becoming increasingly interdependent, which can exacerbate the impacts of disruptive events through cascading failures, hindered asset repairs and network congestion. Current resilience assessment methods fall short of fully capturing such interdependency effects as they tend to model asset reliability and network flows separately and often rely on static flow assignment methods. In this paper, we develop an integrated, dynamic modelling and simulation framework that combines network and asset representations of infrastructure systems and models the optimal response to disruptions using a rolling planning horizon. The framework considers dependencies pertaining to failure propagation, system-of-systems architecture and resources required for operating and repairing assets. Stochastic asset failure is captured by a scenario tree generation algorithm whereas the redistribution of network flows and the optimal deployment of repair resources are modelled using a minimum cost flow approach. A case study on London’s metro and electric power networks shows how the proposed methodology can be used to assess the resilience of city-scale infrastructure systems to a local flooding incident and estimate the value of the resilience loss triangle for different levels of hazard exposure and repair capabilities.
Date Issued
2019-08-01
Date Acceptance
2019-03-02
Citation
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2019, 188 (1), pp.62-79
ISSN
0951-8320
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
62
End Page
79
Journal / Book Title
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Volume
188
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Sponsor
Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0951832018308937?via%3Dihub
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Engineering, Industrial
Operations Research & Management Science
Engineering
Resilience assessment
Interdependent infrastructure systems
Infrastructure assets
Repairable systems modelling
Dynamic network flow modelling
VULNERABILITY
RECOVERY
SIMULATION
FRAMEWORK
CAPACITY
01 Mathematical Sciences
09 Engineering
15 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services
Strategic, Defence & Security Studies
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2019-03-04