Multi-objective optimisation of a rock coast evolution model with cosmogenic Be-10 analysis for the quantification of long-term cliff retreat rates
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Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This paper presents a methodology that uses site-specific topographic and cosmogenic 10Be data to perform multi-objective model optimisation of a coupled coastal evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production model. Optimal parameter estimation of the coupled model minimises discrepancies between model simulations and measured data to reveal the most likely history of rock coast development. This new capability allows a time series of cliff retreat rates to be quantified for rock coast sites over millennial timescales. Without such methods, long-term cliff retreat cannot be understood well, as historical records only cover the past ∼150 years. This is the first study that has (1) applied a process-based coastal evolution model to quantify long-term cliff retreat rates for real rock coast sites and (2) coupled cosmogenic radionuclide analysis with a process-based model. The Dakota optimisation software toolkit is used as an interface between the coupled coastal evolution and cosmogenic radionuclide production model and optimisation libraries. This framework enables future applications of datasets associated with a range of rock coast settings to be explored. Process-based coastal evolution models simplify erosional processes and, as a result, often have equifinality properties, for example that similar topography develops via different evolutionary trajectories. Our results show that coupling modelled topography with modelled 10Be concentrations can reduce equifinality in model outputs. Furthermore, our results reveal that multi-objective optimisation is essential in limiting model equifinality caused by parameter correlation to constrain best-fit model results for real-world sites. Results from two UK sites indicate that the rates of cliff retreat over millennial timescales are primarily driven by the rates of relative sea level rise. These findings provide strong motivation for further studies that investigate the effect of past and future relative sea level rise on cliff retreat at other rock coast sites globally.
Date Issued
2021-12-06
Date Acceptance
2021-10-25
Citation
Earth Surface Dynamics, 2021, 9 (6), pp.1505-1529
ISSN
2196-6311
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Start Page
1505
End Page
1529
Journal / Book Title
Earth Surface Dynamics
Volume
9
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
License URL
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000727704100001&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
76460
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Geography, Physical
Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
Physical Geography
Geology
SHORE PLATFORM EROSION
WAVE TRANSFORMATION
CALIBRATION
RECESSION
PROFILES
ISLAND
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-12-06