Meta-modeling on detailed geography for accurate prediction of invasive alien species dispersal
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Pepper, Nick
Gerardo-Giorda, Luca
Montomoli, Francesco
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Invasive species are recognized as a significant threat to biodiversity. The mathematical modeling of their spatio-temporal
dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical
approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the
assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be
considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different
situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC)
to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited
to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries
of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the
uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.
dynamics can provide significant help to environmental managers in devising suitable control strategies. Several mathematical
approaches have been proposed in recent decades to efficiently model the dispersal of invasive species. Relying on the
assumption that the dispersal of an individual is random, but the density of individuals at the scale of the population can be
considered smooth, reaction-diffusion models are a good trade-off between model complexity and flexibility for use in different
situations. In this paper we present a continuous reaction-diffusion model coupled with arbitrary Polynomial Chaos (aPC)
to assess the impact of uncertainties in the model parameters. We show how the finite elements framework is well-suited
to handle important landscape heterogeneities as elevation and the complex geometries associated with the boundaries
of an actual geographical region. We demonstrate the main capabilities of the proposed coupled model by assessing the
uncertainties in the invasion of an alien species invading the Basque Country region in Northern Spain.
Date Issued
2019-11-07
Date Acceptance
2019-10-22
Citation
Scientific Reports, 2019, 9
ISSN
2045-2322
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title
Scientific Reports
Volume
9
Copyright Statement
© 2019 The Author(s). This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Cre-ative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not per-mitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Subjects
0601 Biochemistry and Cell Biology
0299 Other Physical Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
ARTN 16237