Modelling the global spread of diseases: A review of current practice and capability
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Published version
Author(s)
Walters, Caroline E
Meslé, Margaux MI
Hall, Ian M
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Mathematical models can aid in the understanding of the risks associated with the global spread of infectious diseases. To assess the current state of mathematical models for the global spread of infectious diseases, we reviewed the literature highlighting common approaches and good practice, and identifying research gaps. We followed a scoping study method and extracted information from 78 records on: modelling approaches; input data (epidemiological, population, and travel) for model parameterization; model validation data. We found that most epidemiological data come from published journal articles, population data come from a wide range of sources, and travel data mainly come from statistics or surveys, or commercial datasets. The use of commercial datasets may benefit the modeller, however makes critical appraisal of their model by other researchers more difficult. We found a minority of records (26) validated their model. We posit that this may be a result of pandemics, or far-reaching epidemics, being relatively rare events compared with other modelled physical phenomena (e.g. climate change). The sparsity of such events, and changes in outbreak recording, may make identifying suitable validation data difficult. We appreciate the challenge of modelling emerging infections given the lack of data for both model parameterisation and validation, and inherent complexity of the approaches used. However, we believe that open access datasets should be used wherever possible to aid model reproducibility and transparency. Further, modellers should validate their models where possible, or explicitly state why validation was not possible.
Date Issued
2018-12-01
Date Acceptance
2018-05-17
Citation
Epidemics, 2018, 25, pp.1-8
ISSN
1755-4365
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
1
End Page
8
Journal / Book Title
Epidemics
Volume
25
Copyright Statement
© 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/BY-NC-ND/4.0/).
Sponsor
National Institute for Health Research
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29853411
PII: S1755-4365(17)30113-5
Grant Number
HPRU-2012-10080
Subjects
Disease spread
Influenza
Mathematical modelling
Scoping review
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Date Publish Online
2018-05-18