Dear Spiral user, We’re pleased to introduce Helix, https://helix.imperial.ac.uk/ Imperial’s new repository for research datasets. Please use Helix for all future dataset deposits. There is no change to Spiral - continue depositing as usual. For queries, contact the Research Data Management team at rdm-enquiries@imperial.ac.uk. Kind regards, the Spiral Team. The Spiral team
Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe in summer 2026
File(s)
Author(s)
Barnes, Clair
Masselot, Pierre
Xi, Di
Rayner, Archie
Chen, Xinyi
Type
Report
Abstract
The summer of 2026 was characterised by a series of extreme heatwaves across Western Europe, with both monthly and annual temperature records broken repeatedly across many countries from May onwards. Several government agencies took the unprecedented step of issuing near-real-time estimates of the mortality associated with the most intense heat events, reflecting the severity of the threat to public health. In this study we combine probabilistic climate attribution with city- and age-specific temperature–mortality relationships to estimate heat-related mortality in 854 European cities during the summer months (June-August) and compare with counterfactual climate conditions representing a world without human-caused warming. We estimate 50,391 heat-related excess deaths across the 854 cities during the summer, with around two thirds of these attributable to anthropogenic climate change. These results highlight the threat from human-caused warming and the need for rapid emissions reductions alongside preparation and adaptation measures.
Date Issued
2026-10-23
Citation
Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe in summer 2026, 2026, pp.1-11
URI
DOI
Publisher
Grantham Institute and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe in summer 2026
Copyright Statement
© 2025 The authors, produced for The Grantham Institute and the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. This work is licensed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non-Commercial-No-Derivatives 4.0 International License. This license permits all or part of the work to be copied and shared with others, provided that the original authors and source are credited.
License URL
Subjects
attribution science
climate change
extreme weather
health
mortality
Publication Status
Published