Reductions in global biodiversity loss predicted from conservation spending
Author(s)
Tobias, JA
Waldron, A
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Halting global biodiversity loss is central to the Convention on Biological Diversity and United Nations Sustainable Development Goals1,2, but success to date has been very limited3,4,5. A critical determinant of success in achieving these goals is the financing that is committed to maintaining biodiversity6,7,8,9; however, financing decisions are hindered by considerable uncertainty over the likely impact of any conservation investment6,7,8,9. For greater effectiveness, we need an evidence-based model10,11,12 that shows how conservation spending quantitatively reduces the rate of biodiversity loss. Here we demonstrate such a model, and empirically quantify how conservation investment between 1996 and 2008 reduced biodiversity loss in 109 countries (signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity and Sustainable Development Goals), by a median average of 29% per country. We also show that biodiversity changes in signatory countries can be predicted with high accuracy, using a dual model that balances the effects of conservation investment against those of economic, agricultural and population growth (human development pressures)13,14,15,16,17,18. Decision-makers can use this model to forecast the improvement that any proposed biodiversity budget would achieve under various scenarios of human development pressure, and then compare these forecasts to any chosen policy target. We find that the impact of spending decreases as human development pressures grow, which implies that funding may need to increase over time. The model offers a flexible tool for balancing the Sustainable Development Goals of human development and maintaining biodiversity, by predicting the dynamic changes in conservation finance that will be needed as human development proceeds.
Date Issued
2017-10-25
Date Acceptance
2017-09-21
Citation
Nature, 2017, 551, pp.364-367
ISSN
0028-0836
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Start Page
364
End Page
367
Journal / Book Title
Nature
Volume
551
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2017, Rights Managed by Nature Publishing Group
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24295
Subjects
Science & Technology
Multidisciplinary Sciences
Science & Technology - Other Topics
RED LIST INDEXES
INTERNATIONAL AID
ECONOMIC-GROWTH
EXTINCTION
GOVERNANCE
PROGRESS
IMPACTS
MODELS
TRENDS
Animals
Biodiversity
Birds
Conservation of Natural Resources
Geographic Mapping
Goals
Human Activities
International Cooperation
Internationality
Mammals
Population Dynamics
Socioeconomic Factors
Animals
Birds
Mammals
Goals
Conservation of Natural Resources
Biodiversity
Population Dynamics
Internationality
International Cooperation
Socioeconomic Factors
Human Activities
Geographic Mapping
General Science & Technology
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2017-10-25