Long memory affine term structure models
File(s)paper_6Sept2015.pdf (511.31 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Golinski, A
Zaffaroni, P
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We develop a Gaussian discrete time essentially affine term structure model with long memory state variables. This feature reconciles the strong persistence observed in nominal yields and inflation with the theoretical implications of affine models, especially for long maturities. We characterize in closed-form the dynamic and cross-sectional implications of long memory for our model. We explain how long memory can naturally arise within the term structure of interest rates, providing a theoretical underpinning for our model. Despite the infinite-dimensional structure that long memory implies, we show how to cast the model in state space and estimate it by maximum likelihood. An empirical application of our model is presented.
Date Issued
2016-03
Date Acceptance
2015-09-25
Citation
Journal of Econometrics, 2016, 191 (1), pp.33-56
ISSN
0304-4076
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
33
End Page
56
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Econometrics
Volume
191
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
© 2015, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects
Social Sciences
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Economics
Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications
Social Sciences, Mathematical Methods
Business & Economics
Mathematics
Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences
Gaussian essentially affine model
Long memory
State space
P and Q measures
FRACTIONAL BROWNIAN-MOTION
INTEREST-RATE FORECASTS
CONTINUOUS-TIME MODELS
REAL INTEREST-RATES
INFLATION-EXPECTATIONS
EXPECTED INFLATION
STRUCTURE DYNAMICS
MONETARY-POLICY
REGIME SHIFTS
RISK PREMIA
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2015-10-19