A workflow for estimating and visualising excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic
File(s)RJ-2023-055.pdf (1.35 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
COVID-19 related deaths estimates underestimate the pandemic burden on mortality because they suffer from completeness and accuracy issues. Excess mortality is a popular alternative, as it compares the observed number of deaths versus the number that would be expected if the pandemic did not occur. The expected number of deaths depends on population trends, temperature, and spatio-temporal patterns. In addition to this, high geographical resolution is required to examine within country trends and the effectiveness of the different public health policies. In this tutorial, we propose a workflow using R for estimating and visualising excess mortality at high geographical resolution. We show a case study estimating excess deaths during 2020 in Italy. The proposed workflow is fast to implement and allows for combining different models and presenting aggregated results based on factors such as age, sex, and spatial location. This makes it a particularly powerful and appealing workflow for online monitoring of the pandemic burden and timely policy making.
Date Issued
2023-06
Date Acceptance
2023-11-01
Citation
The R Journal, 2023, 15 (2), pp.89-104
ISSN
2073-4859
Publisher
The R Foundation for Statistical Computing
Start Page
89
End Page
104
Journal / Book Title
The R Journal
Volume
15
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
Text and figures are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 4.0. The figures that have been reused from other sources don't fall under this license and can be recognized by a note in their caption: "Figure from ...".
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.32614/rj-2023-055
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-11-08