Frank-Wolfe Bayesian Quadrature: Probabilistic Integration with
Theoretical Guarantees
Theoretical Guarantees
File(s)1506.02681v3.pdf (716.01 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Briol, F-X
Oates, CJ
Girolami, M
Osborne, MA
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
There is renewed interest in formulating integration as an inference problem, motivated by obtaining a full distribution over numerical error that can be propagated through subsequent computation. Current methods, such as Bayesian Quadrature, demonstrate impressive empirical performance but lack theoretical
analysis. An important challenge is to reconcile these probabilistic
integrators with rigorous convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present the first probabilistic integrator that admits such theoretical treatment, called Frank-Wolfe Bayesian Quadrature (FWBQ). Under FWBQ, convergence to the true value of the integral is shown to be exponential and posterior contraction rates are proven to be superexponential. In simulations, FWBQ is competitive with state-of-the-art methods and out-performs alternatives based on Frank-Wolfe optimisation. Our approach is applied to successfully quantify numerical error in the solution to a challenging model choice problem in cellular biology.
analysis. An important challenge is to reconcile these probabilistic
integrators with rigorous convergence guarantees. In this paper, we present the first probabilistic integrator that admits such theoretical treatment, called Frank-Wolfe Bayesian Quadrature (FWBQ). Under FWBQ, convergence to the true value of the integral is shown to be exponential and posterior contraction rates are proven to be superexponential. In simulations, FWBQ is competitive with state-of-the-art methods and out-performs alternatives based on Frank-Wolfe optimisation. Our approach is applied to successfully quantify numerical error in the solution to a challenging model choice problem in cellular biology.
Date Issued
2015-01-01
Date Acceptance
2015-09-01
Citation
pp.1162-1170
Start Page
1162
End Page
1170
Copyright Statement
© The Authors
Identifier
http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.02681v3
Source
Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS)
Subjects
stat.ML
stat.ML