Estimating subnational under-five mortality rates using a spatio-temporal Age-Period-Cohort model
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Gascoigne, Connor
Smith, T
Paige, J
Wakefield, J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Subnational estimates of under-five mortality rates (U5MRs) are a vital statistic for the United Nations to reduce mortality inequalities between high-income and Low-and-Middle Income Countries (LMICs). Current methods of modelling U5MR in LMICs smooth across trends in age and year of death, but not birth-cohort, to reduce uncertainty in estimates caused by data-sparsity. Using survey data from Kenya, we innovatively apply an Age-Period-Cohort model which accounts for spatial trends and the complex survey design of the data to estimate subnational U5MRs in Kenya. After validating our results against current methods, the inclusion of cohort can provide new insights into U5MRs. We ensure our method is flexible and can be applied to other LMICs.
Date Issued
2025-02
Date Acceptance
2024-12-04
Citation
Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, 2025, 52
ISSN
1877-5845
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology
Volume
52
Copyright Statement
© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Identifier
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sste.2024.100708
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
100708
Date Publish Online
2024-12-13