Role of the mean state for the Southern Hemispheric Jet Stream response to CO₂ forcing in CMIP6 models
File(s)Curtis_2020_Environ._Res._Lett._15_064011.pdf (556.45 KB)
Published version
Author(s)
Curtis, Paul Edwin
Ceppi, Paulo
Zappa, Giuseppe
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Global climate models indicate that the Southern Hemispheric (SH) jet stream shifts poleward in response to CO2 forcing, but the magnitude of this shift remains highly uncertain. Here we analyse the SH jet stream response to 4×CO2 forcing in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations, and find a substantially muted jet shift during winter compared with CMIP5. We suggest this muted response results from a more poleward mean jet position, consistent with a strongly reduced bias in jet position relative to the reanalysis during 1980--2004. The improved mean jet position cannot be explained by changes in the simulated sea surface temperatures. Instead, we find indications that increased horizontal grid resolution in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 has contributed to the higher mean jet latitude, and thus to the reduced jet shift under CO2 forcing. These results imply that CMIP6 models can provide more realistic projections of SH climate change.
Date Issued
2020-05-27
Date Acceptance
2020-03-25
Citation
Environmental Research Letters, 2020, 15 (6), pp.1-7
ISSN
1748-9326
Publisher
Institute of Physics (IoP)
Start Page
1
End Page
7
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research Letters
Volume
15
Issue
6
Copyright Statement
© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. As the Version of Record of this article is going to be/has been published on a gold open access basis under a CC BY 3.0 licence, this Accepted Manuscript is available for reuse under a CC BY 3.0 licence immediately.
Identifier
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab8331
Subjects
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-03-25