Risk mitigation in model-based experiment design: a continuous-effort approach to optimal campaigns
File(s)manuscript.pdf (2.61 MB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
A key challenge in maximizing the effectiveness of model-based design of experiments for calibrating nonlinear process models is the inaccurate prediction of information that is afforded by each new experiment. We present a novel methodology to exploit prior probability distributions of model parameter estimates in a bi-objective optimization formulation, where a conditional-value-at-risk criterion is considered alongside an average information criterion. We implement a tractable numerical approach that discretizes the experimental design space and leverages the concept of continuous-effort experimental designs in a convex optimization formulation. We demonstrate effectiveness and tractability through three case studies, including the design of dynamic experiments. In one case, the Pareto frontier comprises experimental campaigns that significantly increase the information content in the worst-case scenarios. In another case, the same campaign is proven to be optimal irrespective of the risk attitude. An open-source implementation of the methodology is made available in the Python software Pydex.
Date Issued
2022-01-20
Date Acceptance
2022-01-17
Citation
Computers and Chemical Engineering, 2022, 159
ISSN
0098-1354
Publisher
Elsevier
Journal / Book Title
Computers and Chemical Engineering
Volume
159
Copyright Statement
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sponsor
Eli Lilly & Company (USA)
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0098135422000242?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
4200018016
EP/T005556/1
Subjects
Science & Technology
Technology
Computer Science, Interdisciplinary Applications
Engineering, Chemical
Computer Science
Engineering
Optimal experiment design
Model-based design of experiments
Continuous effort
Uncertainty
Risk measure
Conditional-value-at-risk
OPTIMIZATION
REDESIGN
CRITERIA
Chemical Engineering
0904 Chemical Engineering
0913 Mechanical Engineering
Publication Status
Published