What is the future potential of CCS in Brazil? An expert elicitation study on the role of CCS in the country
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Published version
Author(s)
Machado, Pedro Gerber
Hawkes, Adam
Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
This article presents the results of an expert elicitation about the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Brazil as a measure to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, its costs, and the most appropriate policies to develop this technology at a commercial scale. Experts were elicited based on a scenario oriented towards net-zero emissions in Brazil by 2050. Five parameters were elicited, and all present great uncertainty. Results show that experts believe CCS has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions in Brazil. Still, with the current lack of supporting market, policy and regulatory frameworks in place, it could take another five years to begin implementation, reaching commercial scale not earlier than 12 years from the time of writing. Experts say that the chance of Brazil reaching the elicited value of 190 million tons of CO2 per year is very low. This indicates that though CCS can play a role in achieving net-zero emissions in the country, many other measures will be necessary. Policy-wise, the experts bet on a carbon market as the most probable policy instrument to help CCS development in Brazil. The experts also estimated the total investment necessary to reach 190 million tons of CO2 per year captured at USD 58 billion. When it comes to public expenditures, experts believe the role of the government in funding CCS in the country would be approximately 25% of total investments coming from different sources of public investment.
Date Issued
2021-12
Date Acceptance
2021-10-17
Citation
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, 2021, 112, pp.1-11
ISSN
1750-5836
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
1
End Page
11
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Volume
112
Copyright Statement
© 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Shell Global Solutions International BV
Identifier
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1750583621002553?via%3Dihub
Grant Number
NE/N018656/1
PO: 4550182471 (Agr.N.PT77776)
Subjects
Energy
04 Earth Sciences
05 Environmental Sciences
09 Engineering
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
103503
Date Publish Online
2021-10-30