On the intensity decay of tropical cyclones before landfall
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Wang, Shuai
Toumi, Ralf
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
It remains unclear how tropical cyclones (TCs) decay from their ocean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) to landfall intensity (LI), yet this stage is of fundamental importance governing the socio-economic impact of TCs. Here we show that TCs decay on average by 25% from LMI to LI. A logistic decay model of energy production by ocean enthalpy input and surface dissipation by frictional drag, can physically connect the LMI to LI. The logistic model fits the observed intensity decay as well as an empirically exponential decay does, but with a clear physical foundation. The distance between locations of LMI and TC landfall is found to dominate the variability of the decay from the LMI to LI, whereas environmental conditions are generally less important. A major TC at landfall typically has a very large LMI close to land. The LMI depends on the heating by ocean warming, but the LMI location is also important to future landfall TC intensity changes which are of socio-economic importance.
Date Acceptance
2022-02-14
Citation
Scientific Reports, 12
ISSN
2045-2322
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group
Journal / Book Title
Scientific Reports
Volume
12
Copyright Statement
©The Author(s) 2022
License URL
Sponsor
Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)
Identifier
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-022-07310-4
Grant Number
NE/V017756/1
Publication Status
Published