Optimal storage, investment and management under uncertainty: it is costly to avoid outages!
File(s)init2.pdf (2.09 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Geske, Joachim
Green, Richard
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We show how electricity storage is operated optimally when the load net of renewable output is uncertain. We estimate a diurnal Markov-process representation of how Germany’s residual load changed from hour to hour and design a simple dynamic stochastic electricity system model with non-intermittent generation technologies and storage. We derive the optimal storage, generator output and capacity levels. If storage capacity replaces some generation capacity, the optimal storage strategy must balance arbitrage (between periods of high and low marginal cost) against precautionary storage to ensure energy is available throughout a long peak in net demand. Solvingthe model numerically under uncertainty (only the transition probabilities to future loads are known), we compare the results to perfect foresight findings. The latter over-estimate the cost-saving potential of energy storage by 27%, as storage can take up arbitrage opportunities that would not be chosen if there was a need for precautionary storage.
Date Issued
2020
Date Acceptance
2019-09-24
Citation
Energy Journal, 2020, 41 (2), pp.1-28
ISSN
0195-6574
Publisher
International Association for Energy Economics
Start Page
1
End Page
28
Journal / Book Title
Energy Journal
Volume
41
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution
License (CC-BY), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly
cited. All rights reserved.
License (CC-BY), which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly
cited. All rights reserved.
Sponsor
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Identifier
http://www.iaee.org/en/publications/ejarticle.aspx?id=3475
Grant Number
EP/L014386/1
Subjects
Energy
1402 Applied Economics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020