Unemployment, government healthcare spending, and cerebrovascular mortality, worldwide 1981-2009: an ecological study
File(s)Final_Stroke_paper.docx (161.7 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Background
The global economic downturn has been associated with unemployment rises, reduced health spending, and worsened population health. This has raised the question of how economic variations affect health outcomes.
Aim
We sought to determine the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality globally.
Methods
Data were obtained from the World Bank and World Health Organization. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality. Country-specific differences in infrastructure and demographics were controlled for. One- to five-year lag analyses and robustness checks were conducted.
Results
Across 99 countries worldwide, between 1981 and 2009, every 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in cerebrovascular mortality (coefficient 187, CI: 86·6–288, P = 0·0003). Every 1% rise in government healthcare expenditure, across both genders, was associated with significant decreases in cerebrovascular deaths (coefficient 869, CI: 383–1354, P = 0·0005). The association between unemployment and cerebrovascular mortality remained statistically significant for at least five years subsequent to the 1% unemployment rise, while the association between government healthcare expenditure and cerebrovascular mortality remained significant for two years. These relationships were both shown to be independent of changes in gross domestic product per capita, inflation, interest rates, urbanization, nutrition, education, and out-of-pocket spending.
Conclusions
Rises in unemployment and reductions in government healthcare expenditure are associated with significant increases in cerebrovascular mortality globally. Clinicians may also need to consider unemployment as a possible risk factor for cerebrovascular disease mortality.
The global economic downturn has been associated with unemployment rises, reduced health spending, and worsened population health. This has raised the question of how economic variations affect health outcomes.
Aim
We sought to determine the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality globally.
Methods
Data were obtained from the World Bank and World Health Organization. Multivariate regression analysis was used to assess the effect of changes in unemployment and government healthcare expenditure on cerebrovascular mortality. Country-specific differences in infrastructure and demographics were controlled for. One- to five-year lag analyses and robustness checks were conducted.
Results
Across 99 countries worldwide, between 1981 and 2009, every 1% increase in unemployment was associated with a significant increase in cerebrovascular mortality (coefficient 187, CI: 86·6–288, P = 0·0003). Every 1% rise in government healthcare expenditure, across both genders, was associated with significant decreases in cerebrovascular deaths (coefficient 869, CI: 383–1354, P = 0·0005). The association between unemployment and cerebrovascular mortality remained statistically significant for at least five years subsequent to the 1% unemployment rise, while the association between government healthcare expenditure and cerebrovascular mortality remained significant for two years. These relationships were both shown to be independent of changes in gross domestic product per capita, inflation, interest rates, urbanization, nutrition, education, and out-of-pocket spending.
Conclusions
Rises in unemployment and reductions in government healthcare expenditure are associated with significant increases in cerebrovascular mortality globally. Clinicians may also need to consider unemployment as a possible risk factor for cerebrovascular disease mortality.
Date Issued
2015-01-15
Date Acceptance
2014-10-13
Citation
International Journal of Stroke, 2015, 10 (3), pp.364-371
ISSN
1747-4949
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
364
End Page
371
Journal / Book Title
International Journal of Stroke
Volume
10
Issue
3
Copyright Statement
This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Maruthappu, M., Shalhoub, J., Tariq, Z., Williams, C., Atun, R., Davies, A. H. and Zeltner, T. (2015), Unemployment, government healthcare spending, and cerebrovascular mortality, worldwide 1981–2009: an ecological study. International Journal of Stroke, 10: 364–371, which has been published in final form at https://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ijs.12408. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance With Wiley Terms and Conditions for self-archiving.
Subjects
Science & Technology
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Peripheral Vascular Disease
Cardiovascular System & Cardiology
cerebrovascular disease
economic recession
mortality
public health expenditure
stroke
unemployment
SOCIOECONOMIC-STATUS
STROKE
DISEASE
EUROPE
CRISIS
HEART
RISK
Publication Status
Published