The sequence effect in panel decisions: evidence from the evaluation of research and development projects
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Criscuolo, Paola
Dahlander, Linus
Grohsjean, Thorsten
Salter, Ammon
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
We examine how groups fall prey to the sequence effect when they make choices based on informed assessments of complex situations, for example, when evaluating research and development (R&D) projects. The core argument is that the temporal sequence of selection matters because projects that appear in a sequence following a funded project are themselves less likely to receive funding. Building on the idea that selecting R&D projects is a demanding process that drains participants’ mental and emotional resources, we further theorize the moderating effect of the influence of the timing of the panel meeting on the sequence effect. We test these conjectures using a randomization in sequence order from several rounds of R&D project selection at a leading professional service firm. We find robust support for the existence of a sequence effect in R&D as well as for the moderating effect. We further explore different explanations for the sequence effect and how it passes from the individual to the panel. These findings have broader implications for the literature on innovation and search in general and on group decision making for R&D, specifically, as they suggest that a previously overlooked dimension affects selection outcomes.
Date Issued
2021-07-01
Date Acceptance
2020-07-04
Citation
Organization Science, 2021, 32 (4), pp.909-1148
ISSN
1047-7039
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
Start Page
909
End Page
1148
Journal / Book Title
Organization Science
Volume
32
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2021, The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License. You are free to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this work, but you must attribute this
work as “Organization Science. Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2020.1413,
used under a Creative Commons Attribution License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.”
License. You are free to copy, distribute, transmit and adapt this work, but you must attribute this
work as “Organization Science. Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2020.1413,
used under a Creative Commons Attribution License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.”
License URL
Identifier
https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/10.1287/orsc.2020.1413
Subjects
Social Sciences
Management
Business & Economics
sequence effect
law of small numbers
gambler's fallacy
contrast effect
quota model
R&D project selection
innovation
decision making
panel
professional service firm
RESOURCE-ALLOCATION
GAMBLERS FALLACY
EGO DEPLETION
SELF-CONTROL
CONTRAST
INFORMATION
INNOVATION
ATTENTION
KNOWLEDGE
MODEL
1503 Business and Management
1505 Marketing
Business & Management
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
orsc.2020.1413
Date Publish Online
2021-01-15