Factor augmented bayesian cointegration model: a case study on the soybean crush spread
File(s)paper_soybean2.pdf (409.36 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Marowka, Maciej
Peters, Gareth W
Kantas, Nikolaos
Guillaume, Bagnarosa
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In this paper we investigate how vector autoregressive (VAR) models canbe used to study the soybean crush spread. By crush spread we mean a time se-ries marking the difference between a weighted combination of the value of soymealand soyoil to the value of the original soybeans. Commodity industry practitionersoften use fixed prescribed values for these weights, which do not take into accountany time varying effects or any financial market based dynamic features that can bediscerned from futures price data. In this work we address this issue by proposing anappropriate time series model with cointegration. Our model consists of an extensionof a particular VAR model used widely in econometrics. Our extensions are inspiredby the problem at hand and allow for a time varying covariance structure and a timevarying intercept to account for seasonality. To perform Bayesian inference we designan efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, which is based on the approach ofKoop et al. [2009]. Our investigations on prices obtained from futures contracts dataconfirmed that the added features in our model are useful in reliable statistical de-termination of the crush spread. Although the interest here is on the soybean crushspread, our approach is applicable also to other tradable spreads such as oil andenergy based crack or spark.
Date Issued
2020-04
Date Acceptance
2019-11-14
Citation
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics, 2020, 69 (2), pp.483-500
ISSN
0035-9254
Publisher
Wiley
Start Page
483
End Page
500
Journal / Book Title
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
Volume
69
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2020 Royal Statistical Society. This is the accepted version of the following article: Marowka, M., Peters, G.W., Kantas, N. and Bagnarosa, G. (2020), Factor‐augmented Bayesian cointegration models: a case‐study on the soybean crush spread. J. R. Stat. Soc. C, 69: 483-500, which has been published in final form at https://doi.org/10.1111/rssc.12395
Identifier
https://rss.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/rssc.12395
Subjects
Science & Technology
Physical Sciences
Statistics & Probability
Mathematics
Bayesian inference
Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
Soybean crush spread
State space models with cointegration
CHAIN-MONTE-CARLO
COLLAPSED GIBBS SAMPLERS
ERROR-CORRECTION
POSTERIOR
SIMULATION
INFERENCE
Statistics & Probability
0104 Statistics
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2020-01-22