Implicit guarantees and the rise of shadow banking: The case of trust products
File(s)1-s2.0-S0304405X2300082X-main.pdf (1.66 MB)
Published version
Author(s)
Allen, Franklin
Gu, Xian
Li, C Wei
Qian, Jun QJ
Qian, Yiming
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Implicit guarantees provided by financial intermediaries are a key component of China's shadow banking sector. We show theoretically that project screening by intermediaries, accompanied by their implicit guarantees to investors, can be the second-best arrangement and mitigate capital misallocation that favors state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Using a dataset of trusts’ investment products, we find, consistent with our model, that ex ante expected yields reflect borrower risks and implicit guarantee strength, and risk sensitivity is reduced by strong guarantees. Regulations in 2018 restricting implicit guarantees lead to a weaker relationship between yield spread and guarantee strength, and more credit rationing of non-SOEs.
Date Issued
2023-08
Date Acceptance
2023-04-25
Citation
Journal of Financial Economics, 2023, 149 (2), pp.115-141
ISSN
0304-405X
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Start Page
115
End Page
141
Journal / Book Title
Journal of Financial Economics
Volume
149
Issue
2
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
License URL
Identifier
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2023.04.012
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2023-05-13