Background
The development of accurate, non-invasive markers to diagnose and stage non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is critical to reduce the need for an invasive liver biopsy and to identify patients who are at the highest risk of hepatic and cardio-metabolic complications. Disruption of steroid hormone metabolic pathways has been described in patients with NAFLD.

Aim(s)
To assess the hypothesis that assessment of the urinary steroid metabolome may provide a novel, non-invasive biomarker strategy to stage NAFLD.

Methods
We analysed the urinary steroid metabolome in 275 subjects (121 with biopsy-proven NAFLD, 48 with alcohol-related cirrhosis and 106 controls), using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) coupled with machine learning-based Generalised Matrix Learning Vector Quantisation (GMLVQ) analysis.

Results
Generalised Matrix Learning Vector Quantisation analysis achieved excellent separation of early (F0-F2) from advanced (F3-F4) fibrosis (AUC receiver operating characteristics [ROC]: 0.92 [0.91-0.94]). Furthermore, there was near perfect separation of controls from patients with advanced fibrotic NAFLD (AUC ROC = 0.99 [0.98-0.99]) and from those with NAFLD cirrhosis (AUC ROC = 1.0 [1.0-1.0]). This approach was also able to distinguish patients with NAFLD cirrhosis from those with alcohol-related cirrhosis (AUC ROC = 0.83 [0.81-0.85]).

Conclusions
Unbiased GMLVQ analysis of the urinary steroid metabolome offers excellent potential as a non-invasive biomarker approach to stage NAFLD fibrosis as well as to screen for NAFLD. A highly sensitive and specific urinary biomarker is likely to have clinical utility both in secondary care and in the broader general population within primary care and could significantly decrease the need for liver biopsy.