Analysing the causal effect of London cycle superhighways on traffic congestion
File(s)2003.08993v3.pdf (1.76 MB)
Accepted version
OA Location
Author(s)
Bhuyan, Prajamitra
McCoy, Emma J
Li, Haojie
Graham, Daniel J
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. Such interventions are often made in the absence of sound evidence on resulting outcomes. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode, one of the aims of which was to reduce traffic congestion. Estimating the impacts that cycle superhighways have on congestion is complicated due to the nonrandom assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising preintervention and postintervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socioeconomic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to the doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network. The methodology proposed can assist in effective decision making to improve network performance.
Date Issued
2021-12-01
Date Acceptance
2021-02-25
Citation
Annals of Applied Statistics, 2021, 15 (4), pp.1999-2022
ISSN
1932-6157
Publisher
Institute of Mathematical Statistics
Start Page
1999
End Page
2022
Journal / Book Title
Annals of Applied Statistics
Volume
15
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2021 Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
Sponsor
Lloyd¿s Register Foundation
Identifier
http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcApp=PARTNER_APP&SrcAuth=LinksAMR&KeyUT=WOS:000733242300020&DestLinkType=FullRecord&DestApp=ALL_WOS&UsrCustomerID=1ba7043ffcc86c417c072aa74d649202
Grant Number
ATIPO000005051
Subjects
Average treatment effect
BAYESIAN-INFERENCE
confounder
difference-in-difference
DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCES
HEALTH
intelligent transportation system
Mathematics
MODELS
Physical Sciences
potential outcome
PROPENSITY SCORE
SAFETY
Science & Technology
Statistics & Probability
Publication Status
Published
Date Publish Online
2021-12