Combining experts’ causal judgments
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Accepted version
Author(s)
Alrajeh, D
Chockler, H
Halpern, J
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts’ opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts’ causal judgments can be combined in order to determine the most effective intervention. We define a notion of two causal models being compatible, and show how compatible causal models can be combined. We then use it as the basis for combining experts causal judgments. We illustrate our approach on a number of real-life examples.
Date Issued
2018-08-18
Date Acceptance
2017-11-11
Citation
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence, 2018
ISBN
9781577358008
ISSN
2374-3468
Publisher
AAAI Publications
Journal / Book Title
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
Copyright Statement
© 2018, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org). All rights reserved.
Identifier
https://aaai.org/ocs/index.php/AAAI/AAAI18/paper/view/16381
Source
Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AAAI)
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2018-02-02
Finish Date
2018-02-07
Coverage Spatial
New Orleans