Potential impact of a maternal vaccine for RSV: a mathematical modelling study
File(s)JVAC-D-17-00550 manuscript final.pdf (310.46 KB)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of respiratory morbidity and one of the main causes of hospitalisation in young children. While there is currently no licensed vaccine for RSV, a vaccine candidate for pregnant women is undergoing phase 3 trials. We developed a compartmental age-structured model for RSV transmission, validated using linked laboratory-confirmed RSV hospitalisation records for metropolitan Western Australia. We adapted the model to incorporate a maternal RSV vaccine, and estimated the expected reduction in RSV hospitalisations arising from such a program. The introduction of a vaccine was estimated to reduce RSV hospitalisations in Western Australia by 6-37% for 0-2month old children, and 30-46% for 3-5month old children, for a range of vaccine effectiveness levels. Our model shows that, provided a vaccine is demonstrated to extend protection against RSV disease beyond the first three months of life, a policy using a maternal RSV vaccine could be effective in reducing RSV hospitalisations in children up to six months of age, meeting the objective of a maternal vaccine in delaying an infant's first RSV infection to an age at which severe disease is less likely.
Date Issued
2017-10-27
Date Acceptance
2017-09-13
Citation
Vaccine, 2017, 35 (45), pp.6172-6179
ISSN
0264-410X
Publisher
Elsevier
Start Page
6172
End Page
6179
Journal / Book Title
Vaccine
Volume
35
Issue
45
Copyright Statement
© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. This manuscript is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Identifier
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/28967522
PII: S0264-410X(17)31272-0
Subjects
Maternal vaccine
Mathematical model
RSV
Respiratory syncytial virus
Vaccine model
Adolescent
Child
Child, Preschool
Female
Hospitalization
Humans
Infant
Infant, Newborn
Models, Theoretical
Pregnancy
Pregnant Women
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections
Respiratory Syncytial Virus Vaccines
Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human
Western Australia
Publication Status
Published
Coverage Spatial
Netherlands
Date Publish Online
2017-09-28