An in-depth case study: modelling an information barrier with Bayesian Belief Networks
File(s)
Accepted version
Author(s)
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
We present in detail a quantitative Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model of the use of an
information barrier system during a nuclear arms control inspection, and an analysis of this model using
the capabilities of a Satis ability Modulo Theory (SMT) solver. Arms control veri cation processes do not
in practice allow the parties involved to gather complete information about each other, and therefore any
model we use must be able to cope with the limited information, subjective assessment and uncertainty
in this domain. We have previously extended BBNs to allow this kind of uncertainty in parameter values
(such as probabilities) to be re ected; these
constrained
BBNs (cBBNs) o er the potential for more robust
modelling, which in that study we demonstrated with a simple information barrier model. We now present
a much more detailed model of a similar veri cation process, based on the technical capabilities and
deployment concept of the UK-Norway Initiative (UKNI) Information Barrier system, demonstrating the
scalability of our previously-presented approach. We discuss facets of the model itself in detail, before
analysing pertinent questions of interest to give examples of the power of this approach.
information barrier system during a nuclear arms control inspection, and an analysis of this model using
the capabilities of a Satis ability Modulo Theory (SMT) solver. Arms control veri cation processes do not
in practice allow the parties involved to gather complete information about each other, and therefore any
model we use must be able to cope with the limited information, subjective assessment and uncertainty
in this domain. We have previously extended BBNs to allow this kind of uncertainty in parameter values
(such as probabilities) to be re ected; these
constrained
BBNs (cBBNs) o er the potential for more robust
modelling, which in that study we demonstrated with a simple information barrier model. We now present
a much more detailed model of a similar veri cation process, based on the technical capabilities and
deployment concept of the UK-Norway Initiative (UKNI) Information Barrier system, demonstrating the
scalability of our previously-presented approach. We discuss facets of the model itself in detail, before
analysing pertinent questions of interest to give examples of the power of this approach.
Date Issued
2016-07-24
Date Acceptance
2016-07-09
Citation
Proceedings of the 57th INMM Annual Meeting, 2016
Publisher
Institute of Nuclear Materials Management
Journal / Book Title
Proceedings of the 57th INMM Annual Meeting
Copyright Statement
Originally published in the Proceedings of the INMM Annual Meeting. © 2016 INMM. All Rights Reserved.
Sponsor
AWE Plc
Engineering & Physical Science Research Council (EPSRC)
Grant Number
PO 30285060/2
EP/N020030/1
Source
INMM Annual Conference
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2016-07-24
Finish Date
2016-07-28
Coverage Spatial
Atlanta, Georgia