Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Type
Journal Article
Abstract
In March 2022, large parts over the north Indian plains including the breadbasket region, and southern Pakistan began experiencing prolonged heat, which continued into May. The event was exacerbated due to prevailing dry conditions in the region, resulting in devastating consequences for public health and agriculture. Using event attribution methods, we analyse the role of human-induced climate change in altering the chances of such an event. To capture the extent of the impacts, we choose March–April average of daily maximum temperature over the most affected region in India and Pakistan as the variable. In observations, the 2022 event has a return period of ∼1-in-100 years. For each of the climate models, we then calculate the change in probability and intensity of a 1-in-100 year event between the actual and counterfactual worlds for quantifying the role of climate change. We estimate that human-caused climate change made this heatwave about 1 °C hotter and 30 times more likely in the current, 2022 climate, as compared to the 1.2 °C cooler, pre-industrial climate. Under a future global warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, heatwaves like this are expected to become even more common (2–20 times more likely) and hotter (by 0 °C–1.5 °C) compared to now. Stronger and frequent heat waves in the future will impact vulnerable groups as conditions in some regions exceed limits for human survivability. Therefore, mitigation is essential for avoiding loss of lives and livelihood. Heat Action Plans have proved effective to help reduce heat-related mortality in both countries.
Date Issued
2023-12-01
Date Acceptance
2023-08-29
Citation
Environmental Research: Climate, 2023, 2 (4)
ISSN
2752-5295
Publisher
IOP Publishing
Journal / Book Title
Environmental Research: Climate
Volume
2
Issue
4
Copyright Statement
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI.
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Subjects
climate change
DATA SET
Environmental Sciences
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
extreme event attribution
EXTREME HEAT
heatwave
India
Life Sciences & Biomedicine
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
MODEL
MORTALITY
Pakistan
Physical Sciences
RAINFALL
RISK
Science & Technology
TEMPERATURE
WAVE
Publication Status
Published
Article Number
045005
Date Publish Online
2023-09-21