Temporal aggregation bias in model-based Direct Air Capture performance under weather variability
File(s)
Published version
Author(s)
Chalasti, Eleni
Oluleye, Gbemi
Papathanasiou, Maria M
Pini, Ronny
Type
Conference Paper
Abstract
Direct Air Capture (DAC) is a negative emissions technology whose performance is inherently linked to ambient conditions, which directly affect its primary feed stream (air). A common simplification in DAC model simulations is the use of fixed weather conditions, which can bias the predicted performance under weather variability. In response, this study quantifies the impact of local meteorological variability and temporal weather aggregation on the performance of DAC units. Building on a previously developed and validated 1D mechanistic model of a fixed-bed Steam-assisted Temperature Vacuum Swing Adsorption (S-TVSA) DAC process, we simulate its operation using weather data from the Met Office station at Buchan (UK), near the Saint Fergus terminal - a strategic hub for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) activities in Scotland. A two-branch methodological framework is developed combining optimization and forward simulations. Operating conditions are optimized using a multi-objective genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) to maximize productivity (Pr) and minimize specific equivalent work (Weq) at two temporal resolutions. Furthermore, daily weather inputs are aggregated on a monthly and yearly scale to assess the impact of data resolution on model predictions and real operational gains. Results show that temporal weather aggregation to yearly averages biases DAC key performance indicators, overestimating Pr by up to 5% while underestimating Weq by up to 31%, relative to performance based on daily weather variations. Moreover, optimization strategies that explicitly account for monthly weather variability present monthly gains, by increasing Pr by up to 10%. Yet, these monthly gains do not necessarily translate into significant operational performance benefits at the annual scale when daily weather data is propagated in the process model.
Date Issued
2026-06-12
Date Acceptance
2026-06-12
Citation
Systems and Control Transactions, 2026, 6, pp.297-305
ISSN
2818-4734
Publisher
PSE Press
Start Page
297
End Page
305
Journal / Book Title
Systems and Control Transactions
Volume
6
Copyright Statement
© 2026 by the authors. Licensed to PSEcommunity.org and PSE Press. This is an open access article under the creative com mons CC-BY-SA licensing terms. Credit must be given to creator and adaptations must be shared under the same terms. See https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/
License URL
Identifier
https://psecommunity.org/LAPSE:2026.0239
Source
The 36th European Symposium on Computer Aided Process Engineering
Place of Publication
Sheffield, UK
Publication Status
Published
Start Date
2026-06-21
Finish Date
2026-06-24
Date Publish Online
2026-06-19