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Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions
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2020-12-21-COVID19-Report-41 Symplectic.pdf | Submitted version | 19.67 kB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Title: | Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions |
Authors: | Knock, E Whittles, L Lees, J Perez Guzman, P Verity, R Fitzjohn, R Gaythorpe, K Imai, N Hinsley, W Okell, L Rosello, A Kantas, N Walters, C Bhatia, S Watson, O Whittaker, C Cattarino, L Boonyasiri, A Djaafara, A Fraser, K Fu, H Wang, H Xi, X Donnelly, C Jauneikaite, E Laydon, D White, P Ghani, A Ferguson, N Cori, A Baguelin, M |
Item Type: | Report |
Abstract: | England has been severely affected by COVID-19. We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional 2020 surveillance data. Only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier in the first wave it could have reduced mortality by 23,300 deaths on average. The mean infection fatality ratio was initially ~1.3% across all regions except London and halved following clinical care improvements. The infection fatality ratio was two-fold lower throughout in London, even when adjusting for demographics. The infection fatality ratio in care homes was 2.5-times that in the elderly in the community. Population-level infection-induced immunity in England is still far from herd immunity, with regional mean cumulative attack rates ranging between 4.4% and 15.8%. |
Issue Date: | 22-Dec-2020 |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85146 |
DOI: | 10.25561/85146 |
Copyright Statement: | © 2020 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/. |
Sponsor/Funder: | Medical Research Council (MRC) |
Funder's Grant Number: | MR/R015600/1 |
Keywords: | Coronavirus COVID-19 COVID19 Real Time Modelling United Kingdom England |
Publication Status: | In preparation |
Appears in Collections: | Department of Infectious Diseases Faculty of Medicine School of Public Health |
This item is licensed under a Creative Commons License