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Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions

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Title: Report 41: The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions
Authors: Knock, E
Whittles, L
Lees, J
Perez Guzman, P
Verity, R
Fitzjohn, R
Gaythorpe, K
Imai, N
Hinsley, W
Okell, L
Rosello, A
Kantas, N
Walters, C
Bhatia, S
Watson, O
Whittaker, C
Cattarino, L
Boonyasiri, A
Djaafara, A
Fraser, K
Fu, H
Wang, H
Xi, X
Donnelly, C
Jauneikaite, E
Laydon, D
White, P
Ghani, A
Ferguson, N
Cori, A
Baguelin, M
Item Type: Report
Abstract: England has been severely affected by COVID-19. We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional 2020 surveillance data. Only national lockdown brought the reproduction number below 1 consistently; introduced one week earlier in the first wave it could have reduced mortality by 23,300 deaths on average. The mean infection fatality ratio was initially ~1.3% across all regions except London and halved following clinical care improvements. The infection fatality ratio was two-fold lower throughout in London, even when adjusting for demographics. The infection fatality ratio in care homes was 2.5-times that in the elderly in the community. Population-level infection-induced immunity in England is still far from herd immunity, with regional mean cumulative attack rates ranging between 4.4% and 15.8%.
Issue Date: 22-Dec-2020
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/85146
DOI: 10.25561/85146
Copyright Statement: © 2020 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.
Sponsor/Funder: Medical Research Council (MRC)
Funder's Grant Number: MR/R015600/1
Keywords: Coronavirus
COVID-19
COVID19
Real Time Modelling
United Kingdom
England
Publication Status: In preparation
Appears in Collections:Department of Infectious Diseases
Faculty of Medicine
School of Public Health



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